The UFC stays put in Las Vegas for this Saturday’s Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis. The prelims begin at 6:00pm CST on ESPN+ and the main card kicks off at 9:00 on ESPN 2. Follow along as we break down each of the main card matchups for this Saturday’s event, and give our picks and predictions for how we see each of those fights going down.
Spike Carlyle (9-2) vs. Bill Algeo (13-5)
Bovada betting odds as of 11/26/20: Carlyle (-185), Algeo (+150)
First up on the main card Spike “The Alpha Ginger” Carlyle will take on Bill “Senor Perfecto” Algeo. Other than sporting spectacular nicknames, both fighters are also coming off of losses. Carlyle will be making his 3rd UFC appearance, and he’s coming off of a loss to Billy Quarantillo back in May. Algeo, in his encore UFC appearance, is coming off of a loss to Ricardo Lamas back in August. Algeo lost 2 out of his last 3, and Carlyle, who had won 5 before his loss, is currently the -185 favorite.
Our pick: Carlyle, decision
Miguel Baeza (9-0) vs. Takashi Sato (16-3)
Bovada betting odds as of 11/26/20: Baeza (-165), Sato (+135)
Top-notch nicknames continue rolling as Miguel “Caramel Thunder” Baeza is set to square off with Takashi Sato. Baeza, who made his way via the Contender Series, will be making his 3rd walk to the Octagon. He’s 2-0 in the UFC with 2 finishes, including a submisison-victory over Matt Brown in his last outing. Takashi Sato, the Pancrase veteran and Judo black belt, will be making his fourth UFC appearance. Sato is 2-1 in the UFC, and his only loss came at the hands of Belal Muhammad back in 2019.
Our pick: Baeza, 2nd-round submission
Josh Parisian (13-3) vs. Parker Porter (10-6)
Bovada betting odds as of 11/26/20: Parisian (-205), Porter (+165)
Next up on the main card UFC newcomer Josh Parisian looks to make the most out of his debut against Parker Porter. Parisian, by way of the Contender Series, is on a 6-fight win streak with 6 finishes (5 in the first round, 1 in the second). In fact, in his 16 professional fights, Parisian has only gone the distance twice. Parker Porter will be making his 2nd UFC appearance. Porter lost his debut by 1st-round KO to Chris Daukaus at UFC 252, and he enters this one a +165 dog.
Our pick: Parisian, 1st-round KO/TKO
Anthony Smith (33-16) vs. Devin Clark (12-4)
Bovada betting odds as of 11/26/20: Smith (-140), Clark (+110)
In the co-main event, it’s the “Return of the Mack” as Anthony Smith takes on Devin Clark. Anthony Smith is just 3 fights removed from his title shot against Jon Jones at UFC 235, which he lost by decision. In those 3 fights, however, Smith has gone just 1-2. His win was a spectacular 4th-round Performance of the Night submission-victory over Alexander Gustafsson. Smith then went on to lose his next two, including that devastating loss to Glover Teixeira back in May. Devin Clark was originally scheduled to face Shamil Gamzatov, but Gamzatov had to withdraw due to visa issues. Clark is 2-0 in 2020, with big wins over Dequan Townsend in February and Alonzo Menifield back in June.
Our pick: Smith, 2nd-round submission
Curtis Blaydes (14-2-0, 1NC) vs. Derrick Lewis (24-7-0, 1NC)
Bovada betting odds as of 11/26/20: Blaydes (-400), Lewis (+300)
In the main event, #2 ranked Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes faces #4 Derrick Lewis. Blaydes is riding a 4-fight win streak, and he’s won 8 out of his last 9 dating back to 2017. His only loss in that span was to Francis Ngannou back in November of 2018. Also, Blaydes defeated a who’s who list of contenders during that time, including Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem, Junior Dos Santos and most recently Alexander Volkov. Derrick Lewis is on a 3-fight win streak, and he’s been victorious in 6 out of his last 8, including a win over Francis Ngannou back at UFC 226. Even though he’s a fan favorite, Lewis is a sizeable +300 underdog, and we are going to stick with all 5 betting favorites for the main card of this event.
Our pick: Blaydes, 4th-round KO/TKO
Tell us what you think! Where do we have it right, and where do you think we got it wrong? Comment with your picks, and don’t forget to bookmark our page and check back often for more predictions and fight coverage. If you like what you see, go ahead and give our Facebook page a like and follow us on Twitter & Instagram @fightsportfocus. Also, subscribe to the Fight Sport Focus podcast on Anchor.fm, Spotify, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts!