This Saturday the UFC stays in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 177, or as it’s become known, UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill, as the original headliner Glover Texiera vs. Thiago Santos was postponed because of a positive Covid-19 test result from Texiera.
There were a lot of fights added last-minute to this card, and it looks like we’ve got 7 fights tentatively scheduled for the prelims. Of those fights, we’ve got 2 that really stick out. Brok Weaver is making his third UFC appearance against Frank Camacho and Matt Schnell will be taking on Tyson Nam. Brok Weaver’s UFC tenure has been a bit bumpy thus far. Brok got a DQ win in his debut, and if you remember, he was fighting Rodrigo Vargas back in Februrary, and Vargas gave him about as bad an illegal knee as you’ll ever see in this sport. Weaver lost to Roosevelt Roberts by way of a rear naked choke back in May, and he’s got a tough matchup ahead of him in UFC vet Frank Camacho! Camacho’s career has certainly seen better days, as he’s lost 5 of his last 7.
Headlining the prelim card is Shreveport’s Matt Schnell taking on Tyson Nam! Schnell racked up a 4-fight UFC win streak before a loss to Aleandre Pantoja last December. Tyson Nam is just 1-2 in the UFC, but he looked great getting his hand raised for the first time with the organization after a first-round knock out of Zarrukh Adashev back in June. Follow along as we give the betting odds for and break down each of the main card matchups of UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill, and give our picks and predictions for how we see each of those fights ending up!
Billy Quarantillo (14-2) vs. Kyle Nelson (13-3)
Bovada odds as of 9/7: Quarantillo (-260), Nelson (+200)
First up on the main card is Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson. Quarantillo made his way to the UFC through the Contender series, and he enters this fight a sizable favorite at -260. He’s 2-0 in the UFC, and he’s riding a 7-fight win streak dating back to 2016. Kyle Nelson will be entering the Octagon for the fourth time, and even though he’s just 1-2 with the UFC, he does have a win over fellow main card participant Khama Worthy back in 2017. That being said, both of Nelson’s UFC losses have been finishes, and Quarantillo is a bonafide killer.
Our pick: Quarantillo, KO/TKO
Ed Herman (26-14-0, 1NC) vs. Mike Rodriguez (11-4-0, 1NC)
Bovada odds as of 9/7: Herman (+205), Rodriguez (-265)
Next up Ed Herman takes on Mike Rodriguez. Herman’s been with the UFC since 2013, and he enters the Octagon Saturday with a record of just 5-5 with the organization. Herman has had a surge as of late, and he’s riding a 2 fight win streak. Mike Rodriguez will be making his 6th walk to the Octagon by way of the Contender series, and he’s 2-2 with 1NC with the UFC. Rodriguez enters this fight a big favorite, undoubtedly riding the momentum from his huge first round knockout of Marcin Prachnio a little over 2 weeks ago. I’m going with Rodriguez, but if you’re looking to bet on an upset, this might be where you’ll find it.
Our pick: Rodriguez, decision
Roxanne Modafferi (24-18) vs. Andrea Lee (11-4)
Bovada odds as of 9/7: Modafferi (+255), Lee (-335)
The third fight on the main card features a women’s Flyweight bout between Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee. Modafferi is undoubtedly the fan favorite, with her mixed martial arts career dating back to 2003. After a breakthrough win over then undefeated prospect Maycee Barber, Modaferri lost her last one to Lauren Murphy back in June. Although she has a serious edge in experience, Modaferri is one of the few fighters left on the roster with a UFC record that is sub .500. Gladiators’ Andrea Lee enters this fight as the biggest favorite on the entire card at -335, even though she had previously lost to Modafferi (split decision) at Invicta FC 10 back in 2014. Following that loss, Lee rode a 6-1 flurry to being signed to the UFC. She has since gone 3-2 with the organization, however those 2 losses (her 2 most recent fights) were razor close split decisions. Oddly enough, 3 out of Lee’s 4 losses have been by split decision.
Our pick: Lee, KO/TKO
Ottman Azaitar (12-0) vs. Khama Worthy (16-6)
Bovada odds as of 9/7: Azaitar (+110), Worthy (-140)
In the co-main event we’ve got what looks like a great matchup on paper as the German-Moroccan boxer Ottman Azaitar takes on Khama “The Deathstar” Worthy. Azaitar will be making his 2nd UFC appearance after a phenominal 1st-round knockout debut at UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi. Worthy will be entering the Octagon for the third time. He’s 2-0 in the UFC, and he’s coming off of a spectacular performance against Luis Pena back in June. Worthy is riding a 7-fight win streak dating back to 2018, and 5 out of 7 of those victories were finishes. Ottman Azaitar is a finisher himself, having finished all but 1 of his fights. However, Azaitar has only 1 win by way of submission, and as we saw in that fight against Luis Pena, Worthy has a vicious ground game.
Our pick: Worthy, submission
Michelle Waterson (17-8) vs. Angela Hill (12-8)
Bovada odds as of 9/7: Waterson (+105), Hill (-135)
In the main event, Michelle “The Karate Hottie” Waterson takes on Angela “Overkill” Hill. Hill enters this fight the slight betting favorite, and I’d have to assume that’s because of Waterson’s recent 2-fight skid. Those 2 fights, however, were decision losses to Carla Esparza and Joanna Jędrzejczyk, respectively. Waterson is 4-4 in the UFC, and she’s only been finished once, and that was in her UFC debut to Rose Namajunas. Hill is coming off of a split-decision loss to Cláudia Gadelha, in a fight that many, including myself, thought that Hill did enough to win. She was riding a 3-fight win streak before that loss, however, and Hill is 6-6 overall with the UFC. Hill has the slight edge here, only because of recent momentum, when comparing her last 4 fights with those of Waterson’s. Waterson has, however, fought the tougher competition in that same span (Esparza, Jędrzejczyk, Kowalkiewicz and Herrig) vs. Hill (Gadelha, Lookboonmee, Cifers, Carnelossi). I think this fight is a near pick’em, and it will probably go to a decision.
Our pick: Waterson, decision
In episode 4 of the Fight Sport Focus podcast, hosts Jeffery Hoffmann and Nicholas Sherlock will be joined by Jonathan Eiland to discuss UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill. Tune in soon and give it a listen!
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Tell us what you think! Where do we have it right, and where do you think we got it wrong? Comment with your picks, and don’t forget to bookmark our page and check back often for more predictions and fight coverage. If you like what you see, go ahead and give our Facebook page a like and follow us on Twitter & Instagram @fightsportfocus. Also, subscribe to the Fight Sport Focus podcast on Anchor.fm, Spotify, iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts!